Firearm Laws Restricting Large-capacity Magazines Effective in Reducing Child Deaths in Mass Shootings

Research presented during the American Academy of Pediatrics 2024 Conference & Convention analyzes how different state laws impact mass shooting deaths

ORLANDO, Fla.-- The only firearm restrictions found to be effective in reducing mass shootings involving children were laws banning the sale of firearms equipped with a large-capacity magazines, according to a new analysis presented during the American Academy of Pediatrics 2024 National Conference and Exhibition.

Researchers will present, “Do State Gun Laws Affect Pediatric Mass Shootings? A 2009 - 2020 Year Analysis,” during the AAP conference held at Orlando Convention Center Sept. 27-Oct. 1.

For the eight states that adopted large capacity magazine bans, the odds of a child dying from a mass shooting was decreased by 91%, according to an abstract. In contrast, the most common laws – which include restrictions on gun purchasing or the possession of firearms around children in a school setting – failed to show a significant decrease in child deaths due to mass shootings.

“Mass shootings are horrific events. We found that large capacity magazine bans may have the biggest effect on reducing child deaths in mass shootings,” said Stephanie Chao, MD, FAAP, senior author of the study. “We hope that research like ours can help legislators to make informed choices.” 

Mass shootings were defined as those with at least four recorded deaths in which one or more of the victims were under age 21 during the years 2009-2020, according to the Everytown for Gun Safety database.  Researchers then analyzed these events by state using 10 categories of gun violence prevention laws: assault rifle bans; large capacity magazine bans; permit requirements; extreme risk protection (Gun Violence Restraining Orders); universal background checks; concealed carry discretionary laws; gun possession; violent misdemeanor history; pediatric population; and child access barriers.
The research identified 131 pediatric mass shootings from 2009 to 2020. Over that time, laws restricting the sale of large capacity magazines were associated with the greatest significant reduction of child deaths in mass shootings. During the time of the study, large capacity magazine bans had been adopted by only eight states (CA, CO, CT, MD, MA, NJ, NY, VT). Today, 14 states have laws banning firearms equipped with large capacity magazines.

The authors note that the study was limited to the effects on pediatric mass shootings and should not be interpreted to be generalizable to all pediatric or adult firearm related deaths.

Media Relations Contacts:

Erin Digitale, at [email protected]
Stephanie Chao, MD, at [email protected]

Pamela Emengo, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, is scheduled to present the research (abstract is below) during the Session: (H3032) Council on Injury, Violence, and Poison Prevention, Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024

In addition, Pamela Emengo will be among highlighted abstract authors who will give brief presentations and be available for interviews during a press conference from noon-1:30 pm ET Saturday, Sept. 28, in the National Conference Press Room, W208 AB. During the meeting, you may reach AAP media relations staff at 407-685-5401.]

Please note: only the abstract is being presented at the meeting. In some cases, the researcher may have more data available to share with media, or may be preparing a longer article for submission to a journal.  

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The American Academy of Pediatrics is an organization of 67,000 primary care pediatricians, pediatric medical subspecialists and pediatric surgical specialists dedicated to the health, safety and well-being of infants, children, adolescents and young adults. For more information, visit www.aap.org. Reporters can access the meeting program and other relevant meeting information through the AAP meeting website at http://www.aapexperience.org/

Abstract

Program Name: 2024 AAP National Conference-Abstracts

Submission Type: Council on Injury, Violence, and Poison Prevention

Abstract Title: Do State Gun Laws Affect Pediatric Mass Shootings? A 2009 - 2020 Year Analysis

Pamela Emengo
Palo Alto, CA, United States

In the United States, firearm related injuries have overtaken motor vehicle crashes to become the leading cause of death amongst children. A variety of legislation has been proposed, yet there remains a need for research to demonstrate effective mass shooting firearm policy, especially regarding children. We hypothesize that states with more stringent laws had fewer mass shooting associated pediatric deaths than states with less stringent firearm laws.

We evaluated the Everytown for Gun Safety database from 2009 to 2020 for shootings with at least 4 recorded fatalities where 1 or more of the included fatalities was an individual under the age of 21. We categorized gun prevention laws into 10 groupings involving the following: assault rifle bans (Assault), large capacity magazine bans (Magazine), permit requirements (Permit), extreme risk protection (gvrolawenforcement), universal background checks (Universal), concealed carry discretionary laws (May Issue), gun possession (Possession), violent misdemeanor history (Violent), pediatric population (PEDS), and child access barriers (CAP). After controlling for demographic factors, we used logistic regression and a zero-inflated negative binomial model to analyze the relationship between laws and mass shootings.

We identified 131 pediatric mass shootings from 2009-2020. Laws banning the sale of large capacity magazines were the only laws significantly associated with a reduction in child deaths (OR = 0.09 [95% CI 0.02, 0.47; p < 0.05]). Laws involving restriction of firearms around children (PEDS) were the most commonly found legislation, but failed to show significance in preventing mass shootings or preventing child deaths (p > 0.05). The next highest utilized laws were extreme risk protection laws and universal background checks, yet neither was found to have significance (p > 0. 05) (Figure 1).

Of the parameters we evaluated, laws restricting the sale of large capacity magazines were associated with the greatest reduction of pediatric deaths in mass shootings. Our work is one of the first to analyze how laws impact pediatric mass shootings. Despite a relatively low adoption in the United States, we show how large capacity magazine bans have the potential to prevent pediatric deaths secondary to mass shootings. This study was only limited to the effects on pediatric mass shootings and should not be interpreted to be generalizable to all pediatric or adult firearm related deaths.

Figure 1

The percentage of states that have adopted firearm laws from 2009-2020. The percentages to the left of each bar represent the exact percentage of states who had passed the law by 2020

Table 1

Description of the law codes analyzed within each law code category